This Chatham House meeting is chaired by Dr Sanim Vakil from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) programme. Also on the panel are: Dr Hasan Alhasan, Dina Esfandiary, Yasmine Farouk and Firas Maksad
The Middle East is undergoing a realignment as rivalries intensify and new fault lines emerge. This event examines how the Iran conflict is reshaping regional relations and what these shifts mean for wider stability and the political and security order.
This event will discuss:
- How has the Iran conflict reshaped regional alliances?
- What are the major differences between countries?
- What do these shifts mean for Iran-aligned actors?
- How stable is the current regional order?
The Middle East landscape is changing as we speak. It isn’t just the Iran war. There is also Lebanon. Plus, other factors affecting the region.
Iran has been weakened but it clearly is not defeated. It is emboldened and appears to be expanding its demands and acting upon them. He is testing Trump in his way of restraining Israel.
The conventional thinking in America is that President Trump is not faring well. Trump has control of his party. There is economic fallout. Trump is employing a degree of patience. Iran is hoping that Trump will make concessions – Trump has more patience than we might expect. The deal will likely drag on for longer than expected.
Trump is facing resistance from Israel not to end this fight here.
We have seen states like Qatar stepping up efforts to end the war. What does the war mean for the Gulf States? What will the long-term ramifications be following any deal between America and Iran.
The Iranians need to end the war as it isn’t good. Iran is not going to give into pressure if it’s the last thing it does as it would be a problem for it in the future. For Iran it is about survival.
There is no Gulf perspective despite us bracketing all the states together as the Gulf States.
The UAE attempted to mediate but nothing has worked in sparing these states the brunt of Iran’s aggression. This is despite having agreements in place. They validate the fact that there is no real alternative against the war. Qatar have seen the war as reinforcing the need for a lasting peace. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have had ambiguous official stances regarding the war. How best is it to address Iran? Israel could be a partner due to its military tech that was used to aid the UAE. Is Israel a problem though? Iran have delivered a message that the US are a security liability although not everyone absorbs this.
Saudi Arabia has tried to do as much as possible, yet it ended up doubling down on what it was doing before the war. It hasn’t acted as a strongman in the region. Saudi Arabia is more interested in sorting out the situation in Iran. Mediation is a way that will sort its situation It aims to keep a channel with Iran. They are also stepping up in Lebanon.
Iran has survived btu its impact in the region has been diminished as Hezbollah and Hamas are weakened as are the Houthis. Who will fill the vacuum? How will the void be filled with a weakened Iran and an emboldened Israel? There is a counter coalition to balance against Israel: Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt.
The war has exacerbated many of the trends that already existed before the war. Where the war has changed things is the relationship between Iran and the Gulf States. Israel wants to eradicate Hezbollah but that s unlikely. Iran has been weakened but that doesn’t mean that it is no longer a threat.
Even those countries that are most hawkish regarding Iran such as the UAE and Bahrain want the war to end so they can look to the day after.
It is clear that relationships in the Middle East are complex. The meeting introduced a decent examination of the middle East region as it stands today and into the future.
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