war
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Kaliningrad: Could NATO Strike First—and What Would Follow?
Russia’s Baltic exclave presents NATO with a difficult military problem. A pre-emptive attack would present Europe with a much larger one. On a map, Kaliningrad looks isolated: a piece of Russian territory on the Baltic coast, separated from mainland Russia and bordered by Poland and Lithuania. In a military briefing, that geography might suggest vulnerability.… Continue reading
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Fairford Changes the Argument: The Case for British Military Action Against Iran
Britain’s first duty is to protect its people and its territory. When a foreign state is assessed to have directed hostile activity near a military base in England, the government must consider whether its existing response is strong enough. The incident near RAF Fairford on 27 September has brought that question into sharp focus. On… Continue reading
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NATO’s Bombing of Serbia Was a Failure of European Fraternity
Europe’s promise must be that its peoples can live together without fear of persecution, expulsion or bombardment. That promise applies equally to a family in Belgrade and a family in Pristina. It cannot depend on which government rules them, which language they speak or which military alliance claims to represent their interests. Measured against that… Continue reading
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Putin’s War Machine Could Outlast the War in Ukraine
The debate surrounding Russia assumes its military and economy will eventually collapse, ending the war in Ukraine. However, Russia’s capacity for prolonged confrontation remains concerning. Even if fighting ceases, the existing military infrastructure could persist, posing future threats. Strategic support for Ukraine is essential to deter further aggression and ensure lasting peace. Continue reading
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Russia After Putin: What Could Come Next?
The future of Russia post-Putin is uncertain, with outcomes ranging from continued authoritarianism to a potential democratic opening. Leadership transitions could either stabilize existing structures or spark contention among power centers. Ultimately, the nature of Putin’s departure will influence whether Russia adopts a more open society or maintains its oppressive regime. Continue reading
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How likely is a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine?
The two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is desirable but unlikely in the near term due to political and territorial obstacles, particularly settlement expansion. Achieving peace requires significant changes in leadership, security, and international involvement. Without addressing these challenges, a viable Palestinian state remains elusive, risking ongoing conflict. Continue reading
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Should There Be Regime Change in Iran?
The discourse surrounding political change in Iran emphasizes the need for internal leadership transitions that prioritize human rights without relying on foreign military intervention. Genuine democracy requires empowering citizens to choose and challenge their government. Effective support should focus on fostering conditions for freedom, rather than merely replacing oppressive regimes. Continue reading
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How Likely Is a Russian Invasion of the United Kingdom?
Short answer: a conventional Russian invasion of Britain is extremely unlikely. Russian aggression against the UK, however, is already taking place in less visible forms—and those threats deserve serious attention. Images of Russian troops landing on British beaches belong more readily to fiction than to any realistic military plan. The United Kingdom is an island,… Continue reading
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The Houthis Must Be Confronted: Why Britain Needs a Firmer Strategy in the Red Sea
The international community has spent too long treating Houthi attacks on commercial shipping as an unpleasant disruption rather than a direct challenge to international security. These are not harmless acts of protest. Missiles, drones and armed vessels have been used against merchant ships carrying civilian crews through one of the world’s most important maritime corridors.… Continue reading
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Will Argentina Invade the Falkland Islands Again?
An Argentine invasion of the Falkland Islands is unlikely in the near future, despite increasing political tensions and economic pressures fueled by oil development. President Milei continues to seek peaceful resolution while modernizing military forces. The situation suggests a focus on diplomatic and legal avenues rather than military conflict, though miscalculations remain a risk. Continue reading
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