This Chatham House meeting is chaired by Dr Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) programme. Also on the panel are: Professor Vali Nasr, Dr Azadeh Zamirirad and Ali Hashem.
We are three months into the conflict. The main aim today is to disocver what Iran has learnt from the war and how it has reshaped its policiies and how normal Iranian people have been affected.
There is. aflair up now in Lebamon which could undo all progress on the war ending. This was a war that Iran waged from its own territory. It has been successful at bringing the United States to a stalemate.Forward defence is Iran’s strategy. Hizbollah does not play such a key role in Iran’s military calculations. Iran’s main strategy is based on Iran’s own capability. The UAE has been most targeted out of all the countries. What will Iran’s policy be after the war towards its regional neighbours? Iran sees teh gulf countries as a security risk to Iran and not as allies. They should be regarded as enemies. Iran’s approach to the Persian Gulf is that things have now completely changed.
Who is really in charge of Iran? The decapitation effort has disrupted clarity on the decision-making process. A lot is very much in motion. News emerging should be taken with a pinch of salt. It is too soon to say where we are headed. The role and staus of the new supreme leader. Things have been a smooth transition really. The US-Israeli attacks probably helped the shift. Mustafa Khamenei has taken power at a tentative time. There is a decentralization of power centers. It is much more militarized. There is a weaker supreme leader at the top who is essentially in hiding. He isn’t in full control.
There is a new system ruling Iran. It seems like things are completely different. There is a coherent team leading the country.
The lines of alliance are going to be much more complicated.
There are checkpoints on the streets. This has been made more easy by the war.
The longer the war goes the more distrustful Iran will become over US intentions. It fears later US attacks. They feel that Trump is not serious about diplomacy and might wait until the summer, after the World Cup.
I asked a question: ‘What are the long term prospects for regime change in the post-war environment?’
The war has been a huge setback for protest movements. The internet is not entirely free. Ultra-hardline figurs are taking over the system. Mass protests will take lace under far more difficult conditions. The digital space needs to be supported.
The lecture was a concise detailed discussion that provided much information on the situation and potential future in Iran.
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