Donald Trump has been opening the doors to rapprochement with Belarus’ dictator, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, who had previously been internationally regarded as a Pariah figure. What sort of message is Trump sending tot he world by recognizing the leadership of this controversial political figure?
This meeting is part of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House. The meeting was with Anaïs Marin, Dr Ryhor Astapenia and Professor Giselle Bosse.
By opening the doors to Belarus is Trump indirectly empowering Russia itself direct and how is it affecting the policy towards Ukraine?
Giselle speaks and is against Trump’s maneuvers. There is seen to have been a soft annexation of Belarus by Russia. EU intervention failed to prevent Belarus integrating with Russia. Lukashenka’s survival depends on Putin. There will only ever be technical relations with the West from Lukashenka. Will security engagement increase? Belarus is a staging ground of hybrid attacks. The attack on the NATO railway line emerged from Belarus. Also cyber-operations take place in Belarus. Lukashenka might help in finding a peace agreement. However, this is naive. Lukashenka likes to portray himself as an interlocutor and mediator. His engagement has seen no results as he cannot influence Russian policy. On humanitarian grounds as he has released political prisoners this is good. However, it is hostage diplomacy and Lukashenka has a history of doing this and it doesn’t necessarily improve the human rights situation in Belarus. Despite the release, more were arrested and there is now 135 more political prisoners there. Belarus is turning from an authoritarian regime into a totalitarian regime.
There had been unity in non-recognition of Lukashenka and sanctions,. Trump is now breaking this and co-ordination with the European Union. A Ryanair plane was hijacked and this is why sanctions were first introduced. The United States has lifted sanctions on Belavia, the Belarusian state airline, and this is more money in Lukashenka’s coffers. The sanctions had signalled democratic unity and had been effective. US leverage signals inconsistency. Military integration with Russia makes Belarus a threat to European countries. The US engagement is a warning light, a signal that we can expect a peace deal, that has been negotiated between the US and Putin. The deal signals weakness and stops containment.
Dr Ryhor Astapenia takes up the floor to speak…
He believe that Trump’s policy on Belarus is not that bad. There is a limited ability to transform the country from any Western policy. Expectations fro Lukashenka to step down are unrealistic. The sanctions are not considered beneficial. Some governments talk to Lukashenka all the time, for example, The Hungarian government. It is unclear how to approach dealing with Lukashenka. Trump’s Belarus policy is based on mutual concessions. The release of prisoners. A three digit figure of political prisoners. He wants to debunk a lot of the most popular narratives that he cannot distance himself from the war in Ukraine. Some of the released prisoners were Ukrainians. Most people expect that something bigger is coming. Repressions could be planned to be reduced.m How does the policy relate to containing Russia? Is it still important to do this for the USA? Border crossing between Poland and Belarus have reopened. does Putin benefit from this? All the American concessions do not necessarily contradict Western interests. Does it weaken Western policy towards Belarus? Trump has achieved something meaningful. If process collapses it is clear who to blame. There is no risk to other Western States. Other states will follow these steps to pursue their own interests.
Q&A
The prisoner diplomacy is just a prelude to arrest more. The dynamic is not going to change. How much is the US prepared to compromise and to give in return? The sanctions target the elite of the regime and the security services and are designed to damage the Russian war machine. By removing sanctions you are creating loopholes and undermining the greater European Union effort with the standing sanctions.
The sanctions are on Belavia for a reason. Is Lukashanka becoming disposable? Giselle cannot see a peace deal coming up very soon. Lukashanka is perfect for Russia – his is a puppet regime. The soft annexation is perfect for the Russian Federation. Nothing is likely to change soon with the Ukraine situation and this is not good for the democratic forces of Belarus to see their country just slide into the Russian orbit of power. Is the USA trying to give Minsk some breathing space to allow it to potentially decouple from Russia? Belarus si currently being used as a proxy by Russia.
If the West can receive some concessions from the regime, what is the problem for Western security? SUrely the admittance of diplomats going to Minsk is surely good? Is it a rational stand from Brussels to be critical of the new American stance on Belarus? WHo is right? Nobody knows what the result of the new US policy will be.
It is pragmatic and important that this is ongoing and is diplomacy. Europeans don’t want to lift sanctions on transport. Belarusian cargo trucks are banned from EU territory. Cargo from the Belarus State companies is affected by this. Sanction evasion to aid Russia is risked by opening up the traffic to cargo. Democratic forces in Belarus need to be protected. The EU can do a lot more to support democratic opposition. All high level regime contacts have been cut. All the money has been channeled to the democratic forces.
Other tan the release of political prisoners, what else should be included? Are there caveats for democratization? Are there geopolitical considerations? There is more transparency for military activities. The US is trying to achieve a slowing of oppression. They want to talk about a national dialogue. The US is helping with a liberalizing of migration. The big question is what Lukashanka is requesting? He is quite stable. You are playing Lukashanka’s game. He is using migration as a tool and also with the political prisoners. It is a dangerous trick. Short term deals have huge implications. Lukashanka can get things by not doing anything or democratizing or moving away from Russia’s orbit. How can a dictator tell the USA what to do?
The Belavia planes that were lifted from the sanctions were not supposed to be allowed to fly to Russia but this has been happening on a daily basis The entourage of Lukashanka have had sanctions lifted on them. Potash products are relabeled by Russia and sold to the outside from Belarus. Big channels for sanction evasion are being created.
Should there be an EU envoy to Belarus? Would this solve what is happening between the USA and Belarus? It would allow Europe to be clearer with their intentions towards Belarus. By sending a special envoy it would go against the principle of not recognizing the dictatorship. It would boost Lukashanka. There should be working groups on Belarus who focus on the democratic groups within Belarus. What signals are we sending to Putin if we engage?
WHat the Americans are doing at the moment will not significantly change much. It is the correct way to deal with this regime. As analysts we should advocate and promote some policies and see what happens over the next few months.
This was a interesting meeting that demonstrated some of the diplomatic difficulties in dealing with such a dictatorship as exists in Belarus, in a potential trouble zone for Western democracies and Europe.
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