Chatham House: Iraq’s 2025 Elections: What comes next?

This Chatham House event is chaired by Dr. Renad Mansour, Senior Research Fellow, MENA Programme. On the roundtable panel are Dr. Jaber Al-Jaberi, Senior Advisor, Taqqadum Party, Dr Abbas Radhi, Secretary-General Shiite Coordination Framework and State Administration Alliance, Victoria Taylor, Director, Iraq Initiative, Atlantic Council, Hoshyar Zebari, Kurdistan Democratic Party Political Bureau.

There is a long drawn out process of negotiations ahead of the elections. Government formation will be quicker this time. What will happen to the presidency? It will be given to one of the Kurdish parties this time. What comes next is difficult to predict. The last election process passed smoothly. The ratification process is set in place. The political marathon has started already in Iraq. The formation of a government as soon as possible is wanted. In Kurdistan they are trying to get their house in order. There is a long way to go. It would be nice for there to be agreement on the appointment of the President with him being able to appoint the Prime Minister. It has to be a Kurdish candidate to guarantee their position within the political system. The Iraqi democracy is a consensual democracy. The process is moving and the atmosphere is reasonable without tension. The focus is on government formation. Policies are not being discussed – it is more personalized. Government formation can be grueling.

Everybody is waiting for the ratification of the names. There is a process and an agreement as to how the government is formed with the appointment of the various positions. Each political party has one candidate that they want to put forward. The conditions are being discussed between political parties and there are no clean candidates decided by each of the parties between the Sunnis, the Shia and the Kurds. Things are not clear and there is a stronger conflict than in the previous term. There is high competition and high ambition among many candidates. Everybody is waiting. What are the priorities of the up and coming government? There is a lack of confidence among the political parties. The fragmentations between each of these blocks means that there are potential choke-points.

What role will the US be playing in the process? There were broad agreements that there would not be a second term for the Prime Minister. He should not have his own political party. There is a vision for a general manager Prime Minister. There is consensus among the Shia but it is still a continuing decision-making process among the Kurds and the Sunnis. There is a process where political elites co-ordinate on a sectarian basis. Some Iraqi believe that voting doesn’t matter. The days of a US interventionist international policy is behind us. The Trump administration does not want terrorist organizations to be designated as part of the government. AAH is one of these organizations. It has done well but is linked to terrorist organizations. How much will the USA tolerate?

It is important that the next Prime Minister should not use the resources of the State in the forthcoming elections. An observer of Iraqi politics will notice that there is a new generation of Shiites. There have been anchors weighing down the politics in Iraq. The Iraqi and international interests should be reflected upon. There is a risk report for what Iraq might face in 2026. The SNG has prepared everything for the next Prime Minster. He just has to rely on the equation. The next Prime Minister should be acceptable for the entire nation and also the international committee. The political agreement has two sides: the legislative side and the executive side. They have achieved 87% of what they set out in their paper. Does the USA or Iran have any influence on the process as to which candidates are acceptable? None of the proposed names were suggested by the USA or Iran. they were suggested by the Iraqi people themselves in the interests of the Iraqi people.

How can blockages and fiscal mismanagement be prevented in the Kurdistan sector? There are common goals: budgetary issue, oil and gas, reform of the electoral law. There is total agreement on the issues of thee Kurdistan region within a united federal Iraq. All the key issues and the political agreement did not achieve many of the goals that the Kurds and Sunnis requested. Maybe a second commission could be appointed? Hopes should not be made too high. There is regional escalation in Kurdistan. The international opinion or the USA and Iran does matter. He hopes that the election process will not be too long or drawn out and want sa good government to be put into place. There is a disastrous financial situation awaiting a new government to deal with.

Is there a fear of greater sectarian politics dominating the next Parliament? Since Paul Bremen, governments have been formed on a sectarian basis. They are copying the Lebanese experiment. National Unity governments have not been able to be formed. In these elections the electoral campaigns are based on regional, a state is formed without citizens being given their basic rights. Everyone is participatory in this failure. Salaries are withheld form government employees if there is q disagreement between different sectarian political sectors. Citizens still do not have access to basic amenities such as electricity.

There are governments but not a State with proper institutions. Iraq is suffering from many misconceptions and there is a hope that the next government will improve the situation. Special envoys are preferred by the Trump administration. Traditional diplomatic institutions are bypassed and the special envoy reports direct to the President. There has been a reassurance to the United States that there will be a continuation in foreign policy with a close relationship maintained with Washington.

The productive balance preserves Iraq. Iraq kept a rhythm in its relations with the USA. There is an NFD paper about the future of the Iraqi State,. This paper is the result of discussions between the Iraqi political elite. There have been discussions with the military faction about relations with the Palestinians and also how to maintain peace and avoid conflict. There are criteria about foreign policy relations.

There needs to be a strong decision-making government. It is a volatile region and it is no good having a weak leader. The best guarantee is Kurdish unity in Baghdad. There should be an enforced commitment to implement policy. Strong candidate should be supported who can implement policy. The views of neighbours and international players are important.

The electoral law is unfair in how it allocates seats. Will the US use security levers to influence decisions? WHat about protest movements? There is disaffection among youth about what the path forwards is? There has been a collapse of the civil society candidates. Ultimately the candidates that previously won were co-opted by the system. There is no voice for youth movements. There is a desire to pick a candidate that is acceptable to both the USA and Iran and someone who can balance foreign policy between these two forces. There are outlaw militias who the US has designated as terrorist groups. The US is likely to place an emphasis on this and the Trump administration will take some steps to force the Iraqi government to take this on.

This was an insightful sessions that explained in detail some of the challenges facing the Iraqi people as they move towards new democratic elections.