Chatham House: Member’s Question Time: Is the US pushing regime change in Venezuela? Why now?

Chatham House is the Royal Society for International Affairs and I have been a member for two years now. It is an international world-renowned thinktank that addresses international problems and global issues. Experts give talks at Chatham House’s HQ in Mayfair, London, and these talks are also broadcast to Chatham House members and the public acorss the internet. My membership entitles me to go to the meetings in London in person whenever I want and I relish the opportunity to do this when possible. However, I attend most of the meetings from home, here in Caldicot, South Wales, across the internet and I’ll be doing this for today’s meeting. I love being a member of Chatham House and the work here compliments my International Relations (BA) degree that I am currently studying at the Open University and also my work with the Labour Party. The aim is at some point int he future to be exercising a career in International Relations.

These regular Member’s Question Time lunchtime meetings at Chatham House are a good time to engage in international affairs. The most current topics tend to be discussed and it is an opne forum whereby we can put questions to the panel. Today’s meeting is chaired by Dr Andrew Payne, Research Director, Europe, Russia and The Americas programmes and also Dr Christopher Sabatini, Senior Research Fellow for Latin America, US and The Americas programme.

Today’s topic is Venezuela, a Latin American country that I have focussed a lot of study on and indeed I have also worked with artists in the music industry who are based there through Shuffle Artist Management. Indeed sometimes the music has become political and towards the end of Hugo Chavez’s reign in Venezuela, I had a management crisis with DJ Audiosapien who ended up getting locked in an immigration jail and deported to Colombia where he is now based. I also am good friends with a Venezuelan Les Mills fitness instructor, Melissa, who had to flee the more recent troubles and is now based locally here in Monmouthshire. I’m not totally aaginst Nicola Maduro’s reign – I don;t think he is as bad a speople make out and I follow a lot of his very active social media, a trasit he inherits from his predecessor, Chavez, who was also a social media addict. I worry about the increasing threats by Trump on Venezuela with some of the attacks he is doing on narcotraffickers he say are emerging from this country. Venezuela has tons of oil and sits right in the sphere of potential US imperial policies which are often focussed southwards toward Latin America in one way or another. I hope that the situatoion doesn’t broil over into anything more messy than the current status quo. I shall endeavour to learn more at today’s Chatham House meeting.

It was suggested that Donald Trump will be brandishing his gun with regard to Venezuela – maybe starting with some drone strikes or launching missiles. It was said that the narcotrafficking accusations have almost zero foundations as Venezuela is not a major supplier of fentanyl or anything else to the USA. Trump is seeking régime change as the Maduro leadership is seen as unfavorable by the US administration. Only 18% of US voters, however, support miloitary action in Venezuela.

It was wondered if the current situation with regard to Venezuela is part of a broader regional policy of the US in the Western hemisphere. ‘You can’t be a world power if you don’t control your own neighbourhood.’ Trump has also accused Gustavo Petro of Colombia of being a drug trafficker. The US is seeking political influence and Trump is seeking Latin American governments who are Trumpist and fits with his MAGA policies.

Apparently US sanctions on Venezuela haven’t been effective. They sometimes allow dictators to assert criminal control over the country, as Putin has done in Russia.

Apparently, most of the drug supplies that Trump is targetting are actually headed for Europe. Is the drug trafficking claim made by Trump regarding Venezuela valid? The Venezuelan government is illegitimate as Maduro in fact lost the elecion but retained control there. There is a big Veneuzelan and Cuban constituency among American voters who oppose Maduro. Maduro is unlikely to get support from other Latin American left-wing leaders such as Lula. Venezuela does not produce cocaine. It is just a transit country for the supply from mainly Colombia so therefore Trump’s claim is fiction. Most American drug overdose deaths were from fentanyl and not cocaine. Colombia is a much bigger perpetuator of the drugs problems in the USA but they have better relations with the Colombian government.

China is backing away from Venezuela and they owe the Chinese a lot of money but China is very unlikely to offer support to assist the beleagured Venezuelans. There is an argument, without evidence that Venezuela has become a hotbed for Hizbollah, Hamas and Russian activity which is nefarious to the US. It is a fevered idea among certain MAGA advocates.

One wonders how Cuba might respond to US actions in Venezuela. There is a large Cuban-American lobby democratically in the USA. Cuban-Americans feel that Chavez saved Cuba. Cuba still receives oil from Venezuela and there is a reverse domino theory that Cuba and then Nicaragua could also fall should Maduro be deposed. Cuban intelligence has embedded itself within the Venezuelan government. There have been a number of Cuban military advisors within the Venezuelan government. Cuba was instrumental in brokering a peace deal with the FARC with Raul Castro’s direct involvement. How can Cuba play a role in a peaceful transition of government in Venezuela or other states as they obviously influence left-wing governments. Obama is credited with opening up Cuba with peaceful relations. The opening was never leveraged at that time to get involvement with Cuba in Venezuela. Venezuela is more of a security risk to the USA than Cuba. It was an anathema to Cuban-Americans when Cuba intervened with the FARC, believing that everything was being given away to the FARC.

At the end of the discussion, a poll was presented to us about whether or not we believe that the Trump administration will achieve regime change in Venezuela during the President’s term in office. I voted ‘not sure’. There was a majority who voted ‘No’.

It was an interesting discussion about a subject that I am passionate about, very relevant to current politics out in the Americas. WHat future lies ahead for Venezuela? Only time will tell…